Olive pest control, the optimum level of water consumption or the financial changes of the Stock Market are some of the predictions carried out in the Department of Architecture and Computer Technology of the Faculty of Sciences of the UGR.
The Doctoral Thesis «Prediction of Temporary Series with Neuronal Networks of Radial Functions and Matrix Breakdown Techniques», carried out in the Department of Architecture and Computer Technology by Moisés Salmerón Campos and supervised by teachers Julio Ortega Lopera and Carlos García Puntonet, proposes new prediction methods based on models inspired by neuronal processing (a calculation model inspired by the operation of human neurons). Such methods are used in applications of economic interest like financial predictions, pest control or the planning of water distribution networks.
In the field of pest control, the developed methods have been applied to the prediction of olive fly infection levels. This way, it is possible to optimize the use of pesticides, with the consequent beneficial effect for the environment, according to the infection level. According to the researchers, «this method has been tested in Italy with the data supplied by the farmers and it is possible to know the olive fly behaviour two weeks in advance». This is significantly good for the countryside.
The methods described in the Doctoral Thesis have also been tested to predict water consumption levels in different areas of a town of Granada to optimize water distribution among the tanks of the water supply, avoiding overflowing and minimizing valves movement with the consequent energy saving and reduction of the system exhaustion. This work has been possible thanks to the collaboration of Emasagra. «This company has provided us with the necessary data to get to know the consumption level and improve water supply and users´ spending».
As regards financial prediction, according to researchers, «in the last years, the social influence of financial markets has shown a significant increase. Whether directly, by purchasing securities, or indirectly, through a pension plan, the financial industry affects a great number of citizens. High benefits calculation has been decisive for this increase as, on the one hand, securities market can not operate without the transaction processing systems and, on the other hand, there are new financial applications depending on the availability of sophisticated data analysis techniques and high calculation resources to design and shape (often in real time) products and markets». The members of this department are working with a company of Almería which invests in the Stock Market and uses the predictions of this revolutionary system.
The means used to reach the necessary performance level were computers with PCs connection, which work co-ordinately on the prediction methods. These calculation platforms, designed from computers available at a reduced price, are reasonable for small and medium companies (in fact, they can shape them from what they already have). Such possibilities make it possible for the executives to have a cheap prediction method using the computers they have. «It can be really useful in many occasions, like in a book store where it is necessary to know the regular orders and returns to establish a dealing method».
